thought I would go back and look at how the NHC handled Charley five days out, and then when they actually nailed the right spot at the right time.

Unfortunately, Charley did not have an advisory five days before it hit Port Charlotte, so I looked at their four day forcast. The NHC forcasted it to be at 19 N 81.5 W, or approximately 350 miles south of Fort Myers, at 8 a.m. on Friday August 13.
per the closest advisory, the storm was actually at 25.2 N 82.8W.
On tuesday morning, the NHC called for the hurricane to be in the middle of the gulf in five days. Finally, by Tuesday afternoon, Charley was thought to hit Florida in the panhandle.
Finally, by Wednesday, the NHC said in three days it would hit the west coast of Florida.

Now, here's my thoughts. The NHC isn't kidding when it says its average error is 350 miles on five days out. Charley is a tough analogy, because five days before landfall, it was just a depression and Frances is a full-blown hurricane.

But the point of this excersise was to say that while it has Vero Beach in the bullseye now, a 350 mile error could put it in Cuba and miss the US all together. We just don't know.

I looked at Isabel when it became a 110 kt hurricane. The five-day forcast: 20N 63 W.
The actual five day location: 22.6 N 62.6 w. That's a lot closer.
They also kept Isabel at 125 knots. Actual windspeed: 140knts.