I'm not sold on ANY track yet...but I do consider the possibility of this being a Gulf storm much more likely than if you had asked me at 10am this morning. My initial gut on this storm as early as this past weekend was for a Miami/West Palm landfall (in fact, one of the members of this board has an e-mail from me to prove it!

)...I backed off of that a little bit last night and today, but I am starting to get really concerned about a S FL, then Gulf strike. The trough in the central US, as so ably described by Clark and Stewart, is digging quite well, and will reinforce the ridge over the W Atlantic.

BUT....I can and have been wrong too many times to count...while this progression of data is better news for JAX or the Carolinas, NOBODY is out of the woods yet. Pay close attention the next few days!