Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 31 2004 05:24 AM
Re: Charley's Track and the Models

Scott...when Charley was just beginning to look as though it might be a real threat to Tampa, Dennis Phillips said, "If the model runs are still the same this time tomorrow night, we may be in real trouble." That was on Tuesday, and on Wednesday they were still the same. This is an all too familiar reminder of his thoughts. Even though it made landfall south of TB, it was only off by about 70 or so miles, which was in the cone.

If I hear that tomorrow, I'm going out to restock what we used. The track has been trending left then right then back left again, but it really hasn't changed all that much and now with the forward speed moving faster, they're talking about 8:00am Saturday instead of 2am Monday. That's also eerily familiar.

Remember how the pressure had dropped but the winds didn't catch up until right before landfall? That caught everyone by surprise. So the wording "a conservative estimate" used by the NHC when talking about the winds makes the hair on my fairly small head stand up on edge.

I want to say this about our local mets: we have some really good ones and they sure worked around the clock with Charley. However, Dennis Phillips kept plugging himself with the line "we were the first ones to tell you this" about the track change, yet it wasn't until a few really ticked off viewers from the inland counties made him realize that just because it was not going to devastate TB didn't mean that the interior counties were off the hook. It actually took until almost 2:00pm for him to start talking TO the inland counties. BayNews9 noticed the change in the track an hour before they did and also the impact it would have on the inland counties.

I guess what really gets my goat is when a weather person keeps patting themselves on the back (he's still doing it) for doing what he's supposed to do in the first place. It's like a fireman going on TV telling everyone that he put out the fire first. Of course they do, that's what they have to do. I just don't like the "I was the best and the first" plugs. Especially when they weren't.

Now, why I ever went off on that rant is beyone me, I suppose I'm just tired. I guess I just want people to tell me what's going to happen and what I can expect without having to listen to them tooting their own horn.

I think I'll go do something that I didn't do with Charley: get some quality sleep time in. If I learned one thing from Charley, it will leave you physically and emotionally drained just when you need to be on top of the game.

BTW...you and Jason are doing a great job keeping us up to date on the latest model runs. Thanks to both of you for doing such a great job.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center