danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 31 2004 01:45 AM
Re: Charley's Track and the Models

Just logged in. I'll have to say I second the kudos to Jason and the gang for the updates. You do a great job here.
I noticed the NHC has added quite a few FL cities to the Strike Probs. Since I'm not much good at the models, I went back and checked their stats against Charley. NHC had Venice/ Ft Myers with the highest prob up to 36 hrs prior to landfall. I realize that just means that the possibility of the storm passing within 65nm was there. However, both of those cities continued to get higher probs. when NHC was giving Tampa lower probs. That's just my opinion and not necessarily those of the management. It may be a storm by storm situation. They hit dead on with some and miss with the others.
With that said, Miami and West Palm both have the highest probs as of the 11pm Advisory. Both have a 7 in column 'D'.



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