This is about the best description of anyone yet.

AS FOR FRANCES...JUST WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO
CONVERGE...OFF IN THEIR OWN WORLD THEY GO ONCE AGAIN. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE ETA...CANADIAN AND NOW NAVY NOGAPS MODELS WERE FARTHEST
SOUTH. THE ETA HAS FRANCES ENTERING THE STRAITS BY 12Z/FRI WHILE THE
CANADIAN/NOGAPS STEADILY MOVE IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET THRU 72H APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
THE CURRENT TPC FCST.

THE BIG CHANGE...AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IS THE GFS
WHICH FIRST SLOWS FRANCES TO A CRAWL OVER THE CENTRAL/N BAHAMAS
BEFORE TAKING A DUE N MOTION INTO THE SE U.S. (CAROLINAS). ALSO JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFDL IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

THIS TIME...THE KEY PLAYER IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLC RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO PULL UP AND WAIT FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF AK TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
GREAT PLAINS...WHERE DEEPENING AMPLITUDE INCREASES S/SW FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY (BY SAT NIGHT OR SO) PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE GFS/GFDL
SHOW THIS WEAKNESS WHILE THE ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET DO NOT.

SO...SHOULD FRANCES BARELY SLOW DOWN...THE FARTHER S SOLUTIONS (MORE
OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA) LOOK BEST. BUT...IF FRANCES SLOWS TO A CRAWL
WHILE IN THE BAHAMAS...THE CHANCES FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL DECREASE
DRAMATICALLY.

HOPEFULLY...WE'LL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE "IN SIGHT".
STAY TUNED...