Good morning all: another exciting day and the Hurricane of the moment continues west at 15mph...which should keep us interested...
I don't have the time for this but having lived through Donna in 1960 I wonder why the historic trac of that significant storm and this one are not being compared? The timing and the path are similar. The question that needs to be researched if possible is what if any similarity in synoptic features that influenced the trac of Donna exist in the current pattern
Can any one point to any graphic data that can quickly be accessed so we can look at that? This is not just an idle curiosity...
The influence of the ULL to the west on the trac of Frances cannot be under estimated. It has not retreated wes as much as the storm has advanced west and this can account for the GFS and GFDL stall over the Bahamas...
In my opinion if the ULL gets out of the way Frances will stay on a pathe slightly West of WNW into the gulf and a Donna like turn will occur as the trough approaches.