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I haven't heard that, and frankly if there were init problems, they likely would have been mentioned in the 5am discussion, or in this or this discussion from NCEP/HPC. Very good quote here which answers some questions from eariler.... "THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CONUS THIS PD. THE MODEL HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS MORE TO THE RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT STILL TAKES FRANCES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK. WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7" Notice the forecaster says that the NCEP models got the dropsonde data and the other (non-US) models didn't. |