wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 PM
Re: GFS Data Question

I haven't heard that, and frankly if there were init problems, they likely would have been mentioned in the 5am discussion, or in this or this discussion from NCEP/HPC.

Very good quote here which answers some questions from eariler....

"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CONUS THIS PD. THE MODEL HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF
SOLNS. THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...AND NCEP MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR
TRACKS MORE TO THE RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY
5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND NOGAPS ALONG WITH
THE 30/12Z ECMWF TAKE THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL
AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT
WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT STILL TAKES FRANCES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON
DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE NHC TRACK.

WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7"

Notice the forecaster says that the NCEP models got the dropsonde data and the other (non-US) models didn't.



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