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so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?
Not exactly...the 00z run of the GFS, with the dropsondes, was further west....the 00Z Eta, with the dropsondes, was much further s and west. The 06z GFS (with the newsst data) is further west and south than the 00z run. The 06z Eta (again, with the newest data) trended back north a bit, but is still a far left track. This mornings Eta (which is only in to 54hrs as I write this, and contains last nights sondes,which are now 12 hrs old) is a little more north and east, but not nearly as much as the GFS. No 12z GFS to look at yet.
So we are seeing pretty good swings in model solutions...making any forecast a low-confidence one at this point.
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