Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Aug 31 2004 11:45 AM
Re: Gaston Reforms while the Southeast Watches Frances

Rabbit...two things:

(1) Florida is NOT out of the woods at all. If you look at the "projected path" Florida is most certainly under the gun whether you go to the left or the right of the cone. The NHC is not saying anything close to what you're stating.

2) Your statement that the path has been consistently shifting to the north with each run is incorrect. Yesterday it shifted north in the morning, at 5pm it was back south again, then it was about the same at 11pm. At 5:00am this morning it was still to the left, and at 11am today it shifted right. There's no trend to the north in any of those tracks. The only ABSOLUTE thing you can say is that the path has had Florida under the gun since we started getting closer to the US.

There's no evidence yet of a turn to N, or even the WNW. I just watched News Channel 8 and the met wasn't all that excited about the new track, which tells me no one really has a lot of confidence in the models---which are all over the place with this one-- at this point in time. I'd like to say he's really bored by this hurricane but I don't think that's the reason he's not putting a lot of emphasis on it.

When you write stuff, try to be accurate. People new to this board may look at just one or two posts and think that they are either going to get whacked or they're in the clear. A good rule of thumb when saying "we're in the clear" is this:

UNTIL IT PASSES YOUR LAT/LON POSITION, YOU ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.



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