I am not basing my forecast entirely on the NHC model, and the model shift is not necessarily based solely on the official forecast, but the fact that most of the models have been shifting east slightly with each run

I have been tracking since Andrew, and am well aware that you are still in the threat area if it is not north of you, but I am making forecasts that I feel confident in, and I am still confident that it will turn north before getting here. Everyone needs to remember that these are the 5-day forecasts we are seeing, and that the NHC admits that there are extremely large errors involved. Also, as for it not turning north yet, remember Bonnie and Isabel--they both headed due west towards Florida, and turned north rather quickly

My guess is 30-60 miles offshore, moving in a NW to NNW direction by Saturday

I am well aware that the track could shift to the west again, but it could also shift further east.

As for preparedness, I have an emergency hurricane kit that is always stocked with the supplies needed. The only preparing at the moment is to have the supplies that are good to have at the beginning of the season.