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Lisa there will be wobbles to the wnw but a new path will show on a 3 hour trend. By 2-3pm (eastern) we will see if it still is. Generally its been going just N or due west near 275-280dg since Sunday.
48hour GFS has it running up the bahamas NW near 23.5-73.5. This could happen but I think its still just alittle NE by 50-100 miles.
absolutely..there is no feature to turn it that quickly per the gfs and we are at a point where 50-100 miles makes all the difference in the world on effects for the EC of Florida and beyond. take a look at the euro people...it has shown great consistency and is on track..dont know bout its gulf solution but i sure think its south bias is worht looking at. rememebr also gfdl uses some gfs data sowhen when gfs flips gfdl usually will too..nhc is really pinning their hopes on these two models. nhc is a very difficult position here as sofla is right on the edge of getting significant weahter based on THEIR track.
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Re: eye wall