I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looked as if the trough is not moving further south. Is the trough currently starting at New Orleans and moving NE across Alabama the deciding factor or is it one behind that.

The reason I ask is with Charley, the trough extended way into the GOM. This one doesn't seem to be moving further south than New Orleans.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but an ULL will put a hurricane approaching from the west, as in this case, would be pulled to the north. After all, upper level winds would be going counterclockwise and upper level winds are the steering for the hurricanes. That would mean Frances would get tugged from 5 p.m toward midnight.

Please let me know if I'm wrong.