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In reply to HCW... My goodness, just look at how bad that UKMET initialization is! It is WELL north and east of even the last NHC intialization. I really can't buy into the UKMET track when the initial position is that far off. The GFDL is a little closer but seems to really be an outlier by taking the storm right up into South Carolina. The 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad to me. It basically takes the storm into NE Florida, which seems reasonable given the pattern at this time. |