This is an email I received around 2 pm, I hope he's not right for my sake.

It looks to me that many Meteorologists and the NHC are being led around by the daily changes in the GFS model. In the past 24 hours the NHC/TPC has moved the Florida landfall northward to West Palm Beach, then Melbourne and now Jacksonville. I can't say I ever remember a direct strike to Jacksonville or even Savannah for that matter. The most consistent model day to day has been the ECMWF which forecasts a Miami to Tampa Bay track.

I still think a CAT 4 SE Florida coast hurricane strike is our best bet, somewhere around a Miami-Fort Lauderdale window. However a Palm Beach landfall is possible. Why?

A factor for a more northerly landfall at Palm Beach may be that a piece of the front currently stationary over the deep SE may break away and linger. I considered this idea last week as a possible source of a home grown Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone. But his idea is not originally mine as it might apply to "Frances" but is certainly possible and important so I feel it important to mention it.

One thing that lingers in the back of mind though is this. What are the chances of a CAT 4 hurricane strike to both coasts of South Florida in one hurricane season? Or for that matter in 3 weeks.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL