Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Aug 31 2004 08:52 PM
Re: easy does it LIphil

They say WNW and I think had it around 280 or 285. True WNW is 292.5 if my memory serves me right is true WNW. So it's somewhere between WNW and W (north of due west somewhere). An interesting graphic tonight is hurricane alley's AMS Run is setting the stage for an East Florida landfall. Someone above mentioned convergence of the models, well it doesn't get any more harmonically converged than that. I'm still not giving up on my southern NC call, but my call is definitely at a 4th down and 35 point. Bottom line here is the destruction that would go along with a strong III or IV landfall in east Florida. And a storm running up on an angle (rather than crossing) is goint to take out more than one area. The situation is getting more grave by the hour. With winds up to 140, weakening is all relative. Suppose she comes down to 125 or whatever (not very reassuring is it?).

Dubious by his absence is Joe B. His last update was at 12:15. He mentioned lack of sleep then, but I would expect him to put something out in the near future. He was originally Outer Banks or more north from last week. He has continuously acknowledged that he is the outlier forecast, but he just doesn't see the setup to foster what is going on. Frankly, I didn't either. But that's a real moot point if the ridge holds or builds stronger overtop.

Steve



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