0Z numercals are out, for the most part they show a Cape hit. There does seem to be a move to the WNW from NW late in the period, which follows after Frances slows down a bit. This would open up the whole Florida coast to a direct hit, even above the Cape, which usually benifits from the way the coast falls back from the usual curve that these storms take. By direct hit, I mean one that has little interaction with the coast before the eye actually crosses the coast. When they scrape along the coast, they tend to weaken some. A late WNW move into the coast would be a most unwelcome event to add on to an already tough forecast that the coast above Melbourne finds itself in.

The city of Jacksonville is waiting until tomorrow before they make any plans for moving people around this weekend. They too are waiting for the models to get a little bit more together on where this may go. I'm looking at this from HF's point of view. Any forecast south of me is bad news, because I believe if the NHC is going to miss, they'll miss right (north). I felt better being the prime target, to be honest. A hit as far south as Daytona could be real bad news for N FL, and this could be a slow hit as well, leaving the whole area ia a big mess for hours.

You almost have to live up here to understand what I mean when I say how strange this is to think that the area from Daytona north to the FL/GA boarder might take a Cat 3-4. We have escaped so often, even seeing Jax just as the final point of the 11AM forecast was kind of wild. Hope to skip most of the wild ride Frances is going to give someone, but geeeeezz she's a big girl......