This one is for rickonboat. Hey Rick, check out the 00z run for the UK Met. Heh. It's a SFL hit followed by an "INTENSE" hit around Mobile Bay.

UK MET

As for the slowdown stall scenarios, that's bad stuff. That would promote some of the worst tidal flooding and storm surge in memory (both coasts).

Bastardi posted early (or is it late?) this morning. He's narrowed his landfall from St. Simeon Island to his prior ideas (NC). He just doesn't see the setup for the FL track, but it's almost like he's being stubborn. I guess I'm not one to talk since I have a landfall just a few hundreds miles south of his. He thinks the keys are 1) where Frances comes up in relation to the Bahamas (should it stay east, it's a farther up storm) and 2) Climo and the difficulty of hitting that part of Florida from the SE. Next setup (post Frances) should feature a backing trof (based on the ideas of Sondgra trending west with a retrograding ridge in the WPAC) and a high centered around 35-70/75 (Andrew setup). But there's nothing heavyduty in the pipeline so hopefully we'll escape that pattern.

Steve