Doug, I think you *also* need to look at the vapor loop this morning...it shows a big (probably) ULL to the EAST of Frances. Something is out there and *may* affect the track, but if you are currently in the forecast area, you *hope* the ULL's do move it away from you but are foolish to do more than hope it does. One has to plan for the probabilities, not the possibiliies with this short amount of time remaining. Right now, my tin box is in the middle of a forecast area for CAT III or higher winds in a shade more than 2.7 days. I hope the path forecasted is wrong, but I'll not count on it and thank my mker if it does move away. My prayers then go for those new souls that are affected.