Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM
Re: 5PM Update

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

could there be a north track?


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