I posted the message below at 5:44 today in the old forum but didn't receive any answers until the latest 11 p.m. nhc discussion. I'm glad to have it answered. Data errors! ugh.

My original forecast two days ago in the forum was for
Islamorada/Mobile based on the ridge not weakening. I don't believe it will go that low at this point, assuming the newest discussion is correct re the ridge a 290 track would be closer to Miami with Marco Is. exit, then skirt north between the trough and the ridge?

Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
#22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply

I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the GFDL to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.

In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.

See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from Charley.

-Bev