LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 PM
Yikes!

Mike, you're doing a fantastic job keeping the site up...hadn't been able to get on for more than a minute up until about 10 mins. ago. Let's hope she stays up.

Can't reiterate anything that hasn't already been said...the most sage advice comes from those who have been through big storms before...so listen to them.

NHC forecast track is absolutely scary and they've been excellent with this storm before. JB is still clinging to the notion that this will make the turn, and if memory from early this am serves...the location of Frances by Abaco will be the tell-all. If north, he thinks it will turn and miss FL. If it tracks south or over...then it's FL for sure. He just posted another update and

"Cloud shots are indicating, and recon verifying that Frances is turning more northwest and slowing, and is now moving under 10 mph. I dont see why the course should be much more west than north over the next 36 hours and this means landfall is probably not before Saturday night, or perhaps Sunday morning for Florida.

This is not in any way shape or form an indication that the idea still on the board here is right, it means that it still has chance to be a good one, that the storm stays offshore and the land fall is further north. However that will depend on whether the atlantic ridge stays strong enough to steer it, instead of the hand off to the banana shape on most models."

Trying times ahead. My prayers and best wishes go out to everyone.

Hopefully the site will stay up.



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