from accuweather:

"Category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 2 p.m. EDT, is centered at 23.8 north and 74.4 west, 410 miles east-southeast of lower Florida east coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust 86 mph. The central pressure is 949 millibars (28.02 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.

Frances is moving west-northwest at about 13 mph. The thing to watch is movement and speed. If Frances starts to slow down then this will buy more time for Florida and could allow the system to turn more northwesterly, away from Florida. The system will be affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of Frances will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at this morning and midday say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow Frances to slow down and take on more of a northwesterly turn, meaning Georgia and the Carolinas are in line for a landfalling hurricane. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, Frances will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast."