frances inner core looks like utter crap early this afternoon. that pressure jump to 949 mb is probably legit weakening.. i don't know what the hell is causing it, but the eye has filled and the eyewall has become very asymmetric. the environment around the storm remains on the dry side.. those model predictions of a moister environment haven't verified yet.. this probably is a shot of subsidence acting to destabilize the inner core. on top of that the storm has wobbled well right of the forecast track... it is going RIGHT of san salvador, not left as the forecast track has been pegging it for the last few advisories.
let me rephrase that, it is going OVER san salvador.. the western eye at least
reading back through the forum i saw comments on abaco.. what the storm is doing as it nears the vicinity. if it's going to the palm beach area, it has to stay well left of abaco.. left and close to abaco is a space coast problem.. if it goes over it's a ne fl/s ga problem.. if it goes right it's ga/sc.
nah, the door isnt closed for further north just yet.
elsewhere in the basin... 97L has its convection all sheared to the north now. very well defined low level center, which has been intermittently under strong convection for days, which has arguably been a weak tropical storm, slowed and moving wnw near 19/41. it will either continue west as a weak surface system and probably die, or recurve into an upper trough near 45w and strengthen some. little chance to do anything significant, either way.
98L cruising west at low latitude. it has a d1.5 as of the last rating, which sometimes gets a system classified. gfs keeps it weak and west (into the caribbean by the middle of next week).. other globals tending to draw it wnw. slight chance it is t.d. 9 at 5 pm, more likely at 11 or later. this system has a good chance to be ivan over the weekend.
nothing else imminent or looking terribly spooky. just a couple of invests and a very strong hurricane in the bahamas.
HF 1903z02september