Hi everyone,

Frances has been moving NW throughout the afternoon. However, this is not an indication of a recurvature. There is nothing that is going to cause such a drastic turn to the north. The ridge is just weak, and as such, I would expect a continued WNW to NW movement with a slowing of speed over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, the trough coming from the Pacific NW will move into the central US and should strengthen the ridge north of Frances. This will cause the storm to move WNW once again.

This is my non-professional analysis. I think the track will look similar to Hurricane Erin in 1995, but will be a little farther north, especially after landfall. I don't think we are looking at a GOM entry.

Ronn

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