MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 02 2004 04:20 PM
Re: Frances - did she make the turn

Anything is possible, but the new ETA is out to 48 hrs, and so far, it is still offshore Florida, and it is significantly right of where it was. The question is, is this a bad run? It is confusing because this looks more like the older GFS, which is not out yet. It will be interesting to see when it is. From the loop I look at, it looks to be moving NNW in the very short term, and I wouldn't expect that motion to continue. As Charley showed, they'll do whatever they want, when they want, and maybe this one wants to turn right more now. There would be a couple of advantages, the first being, no direct hit, the second being, that wherever it does hit, the interaction with land could weaken it. I think I am spoiled by the fact that the models are run 4 times a day now. I remember when the LFM and NGM were twice a day, and thinking back, it's a wonder any forecast ever verified!


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