THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LARGE WIND RADII PORTEND A LONGER PERIOD OF WIND/SURGE IMPACTS OVER A WIDER AREA. THIS ALSO HAS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME VERY...VERY HIGH 2-3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS. THE NATIONAL/REGIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BASIN *AVERAGE* RAINFALL TOTALS OF NINE INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OR SO...ACROSS THE WHOLE OF ECFL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON FRANCES' TRACK...AND ESPECIALLY HER FORWARD SPEED.

***AS THIS LARGE...POWERFUL...AND VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO USERS NEED BE MADE HERE***

1) BEACUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST...EMPHASIS *STILL* SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE POINT OF THE PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. FRANCES' WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.

2) ATTEMPTING TO EXTRAPOLATE SHORT TERM (1-3HR) TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES INTO A LONGER TERM MOTION IS PRONE TO BE ERRONEOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS MOVING AT LANDFALL.

3) FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR COMPARISONS TO FLOYD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS BETWEEN FLOYD AND FRANCES ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THERE IS NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE OVER OR APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE REFERENCES TO THE
MEAN RIDGE EARLIER IN DISC.

4) FOR USERS OF OUR GRIDDED WIND PRODUCTS...THE WIND FORECASTS REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES...AND 34 KNOTS PAST 72
HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNUSUAL DOWNWARD JUMPS IN SPEEDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFT0ERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY. AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH INLAND WINDS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
RIVAL OR EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.