The Gulf Stream will not impact the track of Frances. It may have an impact on its intensity, depending on interactions with the Bahamas and other factors, but should at least allow the storm to maintain itself.

Today, I just think the inflow's gotten all messed up with those islands and Cuba to the south and west. The outflow is excellent and the air is no drier around the storm than it has been -- and with strong storms, due to subsidence compensating for the large rising motion in the storm itself, you'd expect quite a bit of dry air immediately around the storm.

The Southwest Florida area and Florida Keys have probably been spared the worst, though parts of them may still see tropical storm (40-50mph) winds before all is said and done. The Jacksonville and Daytona Beach areas are by no means out of the woods, especially for tropical storm force winds, but a direct landfall is likely to be further south.

Interesting note -- during the 4pm conference call from the NHC, Jacksonville NWS asked if they wanted to hoist tropical storm watches for the rest of the Florida east coast (as had apparently been previously discussed). The NHC (Avila) said no, that the forward motion and track of the storm did not warrant it at this time. He also said that he prefers hurricane watches (and likely t.s. warnings) in that situation as opposed to tropical storm watches. Just a little aside to the topic here.