jaybythebay, the storm is not forecast to remain over the Gulf but for about 12-16 hours. After moving over land, it often takes some time for the storm to reorganize itself. It is highly improbably that Frances becomes a category three in the Gulf unless it remains there for 2+ days, which in itself is highly unlikely. Warm waters are but one factor; you cannot simply just put a storm there and expect it to rapidly intensify like that. The *only* model which is calling for that is the UKMET, which has had a nearly 35mph intensity error at 3+ days...and also does not weaken the storm as it crosses over Florida at all. Suffice to say, you can discount that one.

No real change in my previous thinking, which is scattered about the last thread. Might trend a tad further north on landfall than WPB, probably just S of Ft. Pierce, but that's all. NHC intensity looks good, though I'm still not convinced it'll weaken that much over Florida. Perhaps that's just a bit of wishcasting, though, as I'm probably going to head out again for this one like I did for Bonnie. It shouldn't be anything more than a minimal hurricane at second landfall, if that, but that's three days down the road. Let's get to the east coast first.