in my case maybe more than a grain, as of the listed i do not carry a met. degree. that said i've got a scenario-discussion for the overnight.
the convective pattern in the storm right now reminds me a little of bonnie (not this year's bonnie, the one in '98). different animal as far as synoptic conditions, but the storm got a wopperjawed inner core a couple days before landfall and never got it's act together on the way in. that may translate to our current system, as the eye seems to have collapsed and the pressure is stuck near 950. the system should at least maintain itself on the way in.. but if tomorrow morning the pressure has jumped up in the 960s it may in fact be one of those magical weakenings not officially forecast, but a saving grace in terms of intensity. remember, as phil likes to remind the board.. damage increases multiplicatively as the wind speed increases.. 125mph is well below 145mph in terms of damage potential... even if only a category down.
the other thing to watch for is what forecaster stewart (seems to have quite a following) mentions as a late game window for the storm to recharge.. after 24hr the current moderate shear regime is forecast to abate.. and the storm will be over gulf stream waters at the time. calculate that with what clark mentioned about a large envelope storm being less likely to strengthen up to landfall.. and it makes the steady state seem the best option. of course the storm may restructure itself and be back to it's former state tomorrow, but this evening brought what could be great news.. frances may have had it's edge taken off.
late mention of elsewheres..
td 9 signature improving, despite uncertainty with its center.. should become comrade ivan tomorrow. my idea with the storm is right edge of envelope, with significant strengthening as it nears the islands. tentative, but i'd trust it more than my official line on frances (ga/cat4). also, i was doing better with frances five days ago.. for good measure.
97L persists, moving slowly wnw. ridging should build back over it, give it a real development window. i'm not sure on whether it goes out or lingers behind the trough and resumes west. fully dependent on strength and timing... and that's as easy as calling a pitch against a pitcher you've never hit against.
such is the tropics as we enter september 3rd.
HF 0356z03september