>>> Jason what do you think of the models tending more NNW along the coast in the 0Z run. Havnt checked the Ukmet but Nogaps and GFS with ETA say this might parrel florida coast.

Hey scottsvb, missed you for a while.

Hopefully JK can answer that one...I'm not a met though. I did want to say, for the UMPTEENTH time...and the real mets can agree/disagree with me...this has been one of the most difficult (and remains that way) storms to predict/forecast. I've already bulked crow from my initial Hattaras forecast (thought that was more than a week ago and I never did gather the stones to refine it...always wishcasted it north and east...burned like the toast I get from my favorite diner).

At this point, and as a mod..I'm now out of the guesscasting game...refer to NWS. I will say it is a FL hit. That's as far as I'm willing to go.

I can only hope the present weakening trend continues but unfortunately...these are facts...ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) probably complete...CAT IV strengthening probably on Friday...warm SSTs...low shear...NOT GOOD.

If I had a met degree I might make a forecast but I don't.

JK? ED? Clark? Even Kev or Mike or HF or Ribbit or Scottsvb what's the calll? I don't want to eat any more crow...quite frankly...I'm full!