I think the difficulty came in the believability of the model data...not the forecasting part itself...I think that Clark and I would agree that other than subtle nuances, this analysis of the situation was not terribly hard, or at least not abnormally hard..it was just that what we had analyzed and what the models were saying were many times not meshing very well. The met community has become very model driven...at the expense of good analysis...that is why I respect Stacy Stewart...he doesn't start with the model data, he starts with a GOOD analysis of the current setup, and proceeds from there with a good idea of what good data should and should not look like.

Anybody can read a model....forecasting well is an entirely different skill.

Off to bed...need some rest for the weekend.