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Finally got some good sleep last night after seeing Frances weaken a bit, down to 120-125mph. Still powerful however. I'm still seeing shear coming out of the WSW from a high just south of central Cuba. The shear doesn't seem to be as strong as it did yesterday which could lead to some restrengthening(see attachment). I actually believed that if the storm came to a slow crawl this would be a somewhat worse scenario for Port St Lucie south. My reasoning being that Frances would continue to track a bit more west than north, pulling it closer and closer to the SE coast of Florida. Then the ridge builds in, Frances increases her forward speed a bit and tracks WNW(or maybe just a bit north of due west) again like she had been doing all week. |