At 11pm last night, Stewart wrote that there was disruption in the storm due to upper-level wind shears which were expected to abate within 24-26 hours. Since they have put the landfall at 10:00pm Saturday night, that gives it almost a full 24 hours without wind shear + moving over the warm waters of the Gulstream, I don't think Frances is "dying' by any means. Then, add in what the Melbourne NWS just issued, and the picture gets a little bit clearer. I'm just not all that confident that things are going to pan out exactly the way it looks right now. The track has shifted so many times to the left and right...mostly based on incorrect models, wobbles to the left and right plus actual weather that IS affecting it.

I think we will see more shifts + different wind intensities over the next 24 hours and as the NHC has said many, many times--there is no exact path/place they can pin down as to landfall.

Let me make this clear: the above statements are not things I WANT to happen, since I am in the path of this storm. So I am not "wishcasting" or playing "doom and gloom" games. I am only posting my very humble opinions as to what I have seen happen over the last 5 years..er, days. This storm is driving everyone nuts.

Keep safe, and keep alert. As for the poster who stirred up the pot earlier, I would not wast anytime responding to him as we are trying to minimize downtimes so that us "so-called amatuers" can get actual and factual information out. He doesn't deserve any responses. As hard as it is, let it go and try your best to stay on topic...and he is NOT a topic.

btw...this is Colleen...for some reason I cannot log on, no big deal, but I just wanted to let you know who I am.