4 pm thoughts from Thomas:

Once again I post this email due to numerous requests asking my opinion on our current tropical trouble twosome!

Barely CAT 3 Frances "once again" wobbled right then back to the left today due to eye wall reformation (trochoidal). She is moving fairly slow at around 9 mph on a WNW heading and could slow done even more. At 2:30 pm EDT on Friday September 03, 2004 the center of Frances is just south of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. This position increases the chances of landfall on the east coast of Florida.

Looking at the 1830 UTC/1:30 pm EDT visible satellite imagery still shows a shrouded eye BUT with a BIG burst of convection in the right side of the eyewall. This big burst of convection should ensure a continued WNW track in the near term. Back on Wednesday September 01, 2004 I forecasted some SW shearing as Frances traversed to approximately 75 deg. west longitude and indeed that has happened during the past 24 hours. I still expect normal eyewall re-development within 18 hours as Frances moves over the near 90 deg. F waters of the Gulf Stream. I also have strong concerns that Frances will strengthen dramatically back to a strong CAT 4 when over the Gulf Stream prior to landfall.

Though we are still in for some circulation friction, trochoidal track wobble, eyewall reformation, as well as some minor strength fluctuation during the next 24 hours, I see no reason to change my forecasted landfall of between Palm Beach and Vero Beach as a strong CAT 4 but now on Saturday evening. BUT like with CAT 4 Charley, speed divergence could abruptly pull Frances ashore (sharp left turn). Otherwise a WNW track from the Palm Beach-Vero Beach window across inland Polk County to near or north of the Tampa Bay region back into the GOM is probable.

A good storm chaser location will continue be the Hobe Sound-Port St. Lucie window BUT BE SAFE. As Frances tracks WNW towards the northern Tampa Bay metro area after landfall, I still expect inland east central Florida to see a long period of 111-155 mph winds (CAT 3-4) and inland west central Florida 75-110 mph winds (CAT 1-2). I would also expect 10-20" of rainfall and numerous tornadoes. With most of the central peninsula saturated from yet another very wet summer I would expect extensive inland flooding problems. A second landfall of a CAT 1-2 Frances is also possible in the Florida panhandle or Mobile, AL.

I do continue the chances of a NW-N track turn missing Florida to the east at 20%. I also add that there is a 30% possibility that a CAT 4 Frances sits quasi-stationary over the Gulf Stream right off of the coast for a day or two and then heads N-NE. And last but not least, a 30% chance that a CAT 4 Frances eyewall skims the coastline and eventually goes ashore at a Cape Canaveral to New Smyrna Beach window.

As I surmised yesterday evening tropical depression #7 east of the Windward Islands "was" T.S. Ivan. My impression continues that Ivan will stay on a track south of the Greater Antilles through the Caribbean Sea and a future CAT 5 threat.

My .02 for today.

Routine disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL