situation is becoming very complex. pressure has been essentially stable all day, but the expanding windfield and stall of the storm is throwing everything into ambiguity. if the storm spins down, the deep layer steering should kick in and take the system further west.. of course the models that forecast the system to up towards ga/sc a couple days ago were exhibiting a stall at times. frances associated shortwave ridge has stuck it's nose down into the nw caribbean and is contributing to it's own sheared situation.
i'm just not sure how the storm will respond to this.. as the storm spins down in a regime of conflicting steering.. there are lots of things that can happen.
HF 0114z04september