I been at the NWS in ruskin today with a friend. Soo tired but we must go on. Anyways Frances made landfall as forcasted just after midnight near Stuart florida as a agruementable cat 2 with winds near 105mph. There was a drop in pressure to near 954 before recon found 957 then leveling back up around 960 at landfall. Gusts reports of up to 117mph have been reported so far near Ft Pierce.
Overall forcast looks as follows. Frances eastern eye wall should come ashore in the dawn hours giving Martin and St Lucie countys winds up to 100mph with higher gusts. Many spawned tornados and additional rainfall up to 1 foot in the N side. By afternoon the winds will drop below hurricane forces and she moves wnw and weakens over the center of the state. Expect still many feeder bands coming up around from the South and SE. Improving conditions will begin Sunday night for eastern Florida.
Over Central Florida and Tampa bay area inland hurricane warnings and Tropical storm warnings on the coast. Expect the hurricane do be downgraded by as early as 11am but maybe alittle longer into the evening as this is a large system. Expect many tornados inthe bands NW-N and NE of the center. Rainfall amounts will exceed 18 inches along and just north of the path. I expect her to exit off of Pasco County late Sunday night. Winds will be around 30-50 mph with higher gusts to the South of the path and 50-70mph in Polk and Pasco counties with higher gust near hurricane force. Monday will contiinue to bring in alot of additional rainfall as the Sw flow develops around the Se side of TS Frances by then but winds will slowly decrease during the day.
For Daytona and Ocala expect winds around 30-50mph with higher gusts, band of tornados will accompany squal lines and rainfall amounts 4-8 inches with local amounts up to 10 further south. Monday conditions will become better from Daytona to Orlando but will take till later during the afternoon along Citrus and Hernado counties.Finally Sarasota south thru Ft Myers can expect the same as above mentioned but rainfall amounts will be generally lighter totaling 1-4 inches with most up near the Sarasota - Arcadia area. Winds in Arcadia could reach 50-60mph during the afternoon for 3-6 hours as the center passes 30-50miles to the N and NE.
I do expect her to regain Hurricane strength Monday into Monday night in the Ne Gulf. Location is too early to pinpoint yet on another landfall.
On side note IVAN THE TERRIBLE might be just that in the next 24-48 hours.