glad to see things online again. not too crowded yet.. with ivan on the way that isn't going to last.
item #1 is ivan. latest recon pegged the pressure down to 943mb... lowest so far. like frances did this storm has the potential to bottom out as a cat 5.. jamaica is likely the only landmass it would get in that state. modeling has been clustering around the florida peninsula as its u.s. impact point for a couple of days now.. globals that melt the ridge periphery down still offering the only out as a cuba-bahamas storm (of course they aren't exactly getting rid of ivan, just slowing the storm down off the southeast coast as the ridge rebuilds by the middle of next week). i'm going to render my idea right now that ivan will hit somewhere on the west coast of florida.. from the keys up to apalachicola.. between late monday and late tuesday as a cat 3/4. the potential for eleventh hour weakening as with frances exists (weakening ridge/shearing environment late in the game). exactly how disruptive jamaica and cuba are also remains to be seen.
other features...
frances is looking less and less tropical as it rides up the appalachians. substantial rain impact felt across much of the atlantic coastal plain, ga/carolina piedmont, and the appalachians.. coming to an end. tornado threat also decreasing. florida got it worst, but with bonnie, charley and gaston having traversed the region in the last month things are quite wet.. ivan's coming is not going to help things.
97L.. persistent disturbance now no longer a tropical feature.. development as a subtropical system unlikely but possible. system has been slowly closing on the azores in a sheared environment, blocked by ridging to the ne, with a trough digging and breaking away to the west. has been tracked since august 30th.. unusual longevity for an invest.
modeling suggests two low-potential areas of development in the subtropics.. northerly flow behind frances into the gulf merging with an easterly wave, with residual ridging. no organization at this point, but eta suggests a trough will develop near the yucatan later this week.
trough forecast to dig, cut off and retrograde near 30n in the central atlantic.. several clusters of convection associated.. slight potential for this low to become deep layer by associating with surface convection, and acquire tropical characteristics.. once it develops.
waves near 45w, 31w.. and newly emerging. the 45w wave has a moderate chance of development... weak ridging aloft, broad circulation.. unfocused, scattered convection also. hasn't changed profile much since tue, moving w-wnw at around 12mph. low model interest. 31w wave not much different in terms of potential, moving w at lower latitude. characteristics similar.
development clock is ticking with isis having developed in the eastpac.. 5-10 days.
glad to see people coming back on. y'all take it easy.
HF 2212z08september