The GFS was too far to the right on Frances, and that trend seems to be continuing. I will give it high marks for consistency though. It has (for several runs) taken it east of Florida, and then looped it back into the mid atlantic. With a storm like this, it is my opinion that the farther east solutions are going to be hard to achieve. I still expect it to end up in the NW Caribbean. Gilbert never was able to make the predicted turn, and it intensified rapidly after hitting Jamaica. If my memory is correct, it was about 135 mph over Jamiaca, and stregthened to 888 mil. and 180 mph after that.
The ULL looks to be moving away faster than Ivan is approaching. It may be enhancing the outflow, and the eyewall now looks like a perfect doughnut. I think this is Cat 5 by 11 pm. This also might make it harder to turn, although it looks to have wobbled back to the right on the last pic.