Hi all, yes i posted on gatorpond( the temp forum this morning). Thanks again to the emails I recieved from people on my calls on Frances all the way to landfall 5 days out on Martin county. On gatorpond I give some reasons to my forcasting. I hope everyone gets the power back up and the flooding subsides asap.
I will only give a brief note on Ivan right now as I did on the other forum. The NHC pretty much has this down pat thru 72/84 hours thru Jamaica area--thru Cayman Islands to just N of western Cuba in 84-96 hours. GFS is the outliner right now and CMC will be off in the next 48 hours as it continues to show lack of troughiness in the medium range till it gets to the central gulf. Currently the Nogaps has been the most consistant with the global models followed by the Ukmet. I suspect the GFS to swing more to the left over the next couple of runs. I wont give a call yet on landfall area after 3 days here as the steering currents will be weak. Everyone on both sides of Florida - Mobile need to keep a eye on this,, especially western florida. Will post a landfall area by friday.
scottsvb pegged frances' track closely 3 1/2 days out from florida... he may be on a roll. -HF