Well, been studiing Ivan for several hours and here is what I have gleaned so far.

1) This is a GOM storm.

2) This is very near definately a Florida landfalling storm (the furtherest west I could place it at this point is Biloxi...and that is a stretch)

3) If pressed to make a call, I'd have to say the western peninsula is the most likely location....but this is extremely low confidence, and I am vaciliating between that and a Panhandle strike. The model guidance is not definative, to say the least...while I recognize why NHC is further right in this advisory, I am not in total agreement. Remember that NHC is using a model blend to come up with their track and not the 'best performing' model...this is a pretty good technique for trends, but not the best for nailing down an exact location, especially when the track spread is wide. The hinge is the trough, and the eventual impact on the track. The good news is that, as outlined in Beven's 11pm disco, there should be at least some slight weakening prior to landfall, but this might not be enough to significantly weaken it.

All residents of Florida should be watching very closely this week (as if they weren't already).