It now appears Ivan the Terrible is moving solidly WNW, and it looks like intensification may have slowed down or stopped based on the inner-core convection. Really not a surprise since it has gone through 2 intens. bursts since yesterday. The GFS seems to be doing what it did with Frances, and that is insisting on a far-right track. With Frances, several runs around day 5 called for landfall in the Carolinas. I am not sure why this model is behaving this way, if I remember correctly, it did a pretty good job with Isabel and others. About a week ago, one of the forecasters at the NWSFO in Mount Holly talked about how the recent MJO activity correllated well to the activity in the tropics. He stated at the time that the eastern trough pattern was disrupted in early August by the MJO activity, and that that trough was not likely to return in the near future (written on 9-4).
It has been a strange year. South America gets hit by a hurricane, and there are 2 others out there, plus Japan gets hit by 7 typhoons this year, in addition to our troubles in the tropics. This year deserves a lot of study.