The ETA (not trusting it totally at this point either) is much more to the left than the GFS. I think Ivan has gradually made a rightward turn since yesterday. If this were the size of Gilbert, I would say they are all too far to the right. It may have been 16 years ago, but I seem to remember Gilbert was forecasted originally to hit several hundred miles farther east than it did. That monster also took up a lot of space, and totally altered its surroundings. It just wouldn't (couldn't?) turn. This one looks like it can. If this hits Jamaica head-on, it will be worse than Gilbert if it remains at this intensity. It took many years for them to recover from that one.