Good morning and welcome back! Missed this site for the past 6 days.
Great posts on the WV loops.
The dynamic which will dictate this storm's solution is much more visible than with Frances.
clearly the race is on between the trough approaching from the west and north west and the ridge still advancing in the ATL.
the trough into the GOM left behind by Frances will play a role in this, and could be the point of convergence. Mets today are talking rather confidently that this trough will dissipate today and then allow a more right turn to the storm...could be.
my attention will be to that area over the GOM all day. Right now it looks like it is setting up as the zone of convergence between the still advancing strong ridge to the north and east of the storm and the advancing trough over the midwest US.
Watch how the upper air flows in this zone and we could see what Ivan may do...I don't like what I see so far by the way...