shawn I know your hoping for a landfall my you in houston, but chances of that happeing are like 2%. I see you are saying though that it will probably be near western florida and you are in good odds with that. The trough that you say hasnt formed yet is already there. The strength of it compared to the strength of the ridge over the next 3-5 days is the key on where the turn will be,, Panama City? Tampa? Everglades? who knows right now, but will say this, it wont be a cat 5 when it makes landfall, infact it might not even be a cat4. Dryier air is going to be absorbed into the system after it get north of cuba. Also shear will start during that time frame. If it does make it north of 28dg and w of 83 then still cooler water from Frances will also inhibit strengthning. Right now I would say Cat 3 with winds around 125-130. Landfall I wont call yet till Friday evening. Basically though its a Florida call and to through in a if anything, a movement skimming the se florida coast isnt totally out of the question. Basically the NHC forcast looks on track.