Are ridiculous at this point. To show a landfall in South Florida is only because the NHC has to give us something. However, the forecast beyond 3 days is HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

As well, the models are in excellent agreement that Ivan the Terrible will traverse the southern high pressure ridge on a general wnw track for the next 3 days. In my mind, at the moment, that is ALL we can be sure of.

Therefore..NO one is out of the woods...from the Florida Keys to anywhere on the Gulf Coast.

I believe it must be a super precautionary move to begin evacuating the vacationers down in the keys...

These hurricanes, and the destruction...are in a SMALL window.

For instance..the hurricane passed about, what 80 miles north of Aruba..and the winds there were 40 mph max. Remember....it's really a little bulls eye..and kinda has to hit you on the chin to be a widow maker...100 miles this way or that...and it ain't much...
oh, and hope that you don't catch the right side of the storm too...

we will see