Look at what SNONUT says.

Track: Ivan is now moving between (285-295 degrees) at 17 mph…this motion is expected for the next 36-48 hours with a gradually increasing northward component through the period.

This will take Ivan on a path over or just south (no more than 50 miles south) of Jamaica during Friday afternoon. If this thinking is correct Jamaica will sustain a direct or very near a direct hit by a very intense hurricane.

From there expect a path that will take Ivan across extreme western Cuba emerging near 23N/83W Sunday afternoon…this is essentially over the Isle of Youth….before crossing Cuba.

It will cross Cuba at a brisk pace, and the terrain is not that rough…so expect little disruption in the overall circulation.

Once emerging from Cuba Ivan will continue NW to NNW taking aim on the Gulf Coast…between the MS/AL border eastward to Cedar Key, Fl…timing looks like late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

This track is only a very short distance (30-40 miles) to the left of the official TPC track…and about 100 miles to the right of my thinking from Tuesday evening update.

There remains quite a bit of model spread and flip-flop today….the GFS seems clueless with a track across eastern Cuba, east of the Bahamas and out to sea off the east coast. The UKMET is right of my track with a projected landfall along the S.W. Florida coast near Ft. Myers. NOGAPS is across west-central Cuba…up right along the Fl west coast with landfall near Cedar Key. The 18Z GFDL….is as lost in the darkness as the GFS…it cuts across central Cuba with a landfall near Miami. The GDFL has been making wild swings back and forth and is essentially useless at this point. If order for either the GFS or GFDL to verify Ivan would have to turn sharply Northwest in the next 6 hours…and that is not going to happen.

The 12Z Euro….is right there with the GFDL…over central Cuba….right up along the FL east coast with an eventual landfall on the SC coast.

The 12Z Canadian Global is to the left of the UKMET through the Yucatan Channel with an eventual landfall on the Gulf coast of MS/AL. While I'm no big fan of this model and its ability to predict long term motions of tropical cyclones I just mention it so you can see how much spread there is among the global models.

The latest 00Z Medium BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFS…the latest 00Z Deep BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFDL only a little slower.

Bottom line…the models have been rightward biased for the last 3-4 days and I think that continues. So my forecast is close to the UKMET and the official TPC 5pm track package.

So there is much model spread, but the bottom line is that a major hurricane will likely threaten the Eastern Gulf coast states late in the weekend and early next week.

Residents from the LA/MS border eastward to the west coast of Florida need to monitor future updates on Ivan.