Steve, glad to see you back.... sorry about your mom

Going to do my part with a donation to the site as well...

Seems to me a major factor in final landfall will be the strength of the ridge off to the northeast.... water vapor loops show the ridge still building to the SW..... not sure if its going to be strong enough to push this beast as far west as MS/AL line.... not very likely but you never know.... I'll never say a hurricane will definitely not hit somewhere...

posted on storm2K four days ago I was really leaning towards Mobile and 25 miles to the east as a potential landfall area (possible, but not likely now).... thinking today is that I'm to far west.... best guess right now would be from PC to Tampa...... and leaning somewhere in the middle. I don't expect (or at least hope not) a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall, but a strong 3 (and I think shear will be the inhibiting factor for maximizing intensity) is no laughing matter either...... Ivan looks to be dead on with a collision course with Jamaica....

this was a season of all seasons.... unfortunately its still just about half way through......