Thanks, Gary.

I know that the models and the forecasts and other weather factors play a huge role in where landfall occurs. However, after having gone through 2 hurricanes in less than a month, I've also noticed other things that can clue you into what the "authorities" and "officials" are thinking.

For instance, the evacuation of the Keys. Monroe County Emergency doesn't just issue a mandatory evacuation as a precautionary measure. First of all, it costs a LOT of money. To tell residents that 4 days before the storm *may* even hit them that they have to leave tells a tale of its own. When was the last time ANYONE was evacuated 5-6 days out? When was the last time anyone was evacuated BEFORE watches/warnings went up? We can sit here and say that it's because they have a lot of visitors there, but I can't imagine that they had that many considering the fact that Frances just left us Tuesday morning. I certainly don't think it was done without consulting with the NHC and Tallahassee.

2) I'm a good people watcher. I can spot a liar and a cheat a mile away. I'm looking at the local mets here and their faces alone tell the tale about Ivan. They've told us to keep up our plywood, and people have. Even the guy from Accuweather was on Fox's "On The Record" last night and when asked what advice he'd give to the residents of Florida, he said,
"Don't take the plywood off of your windows, because more than likely you'll just have to put it up again over the weekend. Restock items that you may have used....etc."

Science isn't an exact nature, we all know that by now. Just watch the people around you...the ones who know more than we do...and take the clues from them.

Anyway, just some food for thought.