I am getting more and more concerned this afternoon about a Panhandle strike. The battle is, as it was with Frances, the Ridge to the NE vs the approaching trough to the west. What concerns me is that ALL the US modelling was too far east with Frances, and so far has been too far east and north with Ivan. Trends are very important here. I am afraid (for my sake, but not for S Fl) that the ridge AGAIN is underforecast by the US modelling suites, and that the Euro/Canadian track are more accurate. If you have Accuweather Pro, JB did a very good writeup today about his theories as to why that is.

Nevertheless, ALL residents of Florida are under the gun from Ivan...however, my forecast focus, at least for now, is in the areas between Tampa and Mobile.

As always, your mileage may vary....