| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:18 PM |
|
Re: Ever so slightly shifting west.... is this a trend?
|
Here's the Tampa Bay NWS Discussion from this afternoon:
Quote:
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...ALL EYES ON IVAN FOR THE SUN-TUE PERIOD. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL TRACK AFTER
72H. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO 'CANES...THE UPPER PATTERN PUZZLE PIECES WILL HAVE TO FIT JUST RIGHT TO GIVE FLORIDA
ANOTHER DIRECT HIT. IN ADDITION...WHERE IT GOES OVER THE NEXT 72H WILL ALSO AFFECT INTENSITY ESPECIALLY SHOULD IT STRIKE JAMAICA.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE A RIGHT BIAS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN LINE AT 12Z WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING THE EASTERN GULF RATHER THAN THE ATLC. NOGAPS HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT FOR THREE DAYS IN A WORST-CASE TRACK ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...AND THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SIMILAR. SEVERAL KEYS TO THE LONG RANGE EVOLUTION WILL BE...HOW STRONG NE U.S. TROUGH IS ON DAY 4...HOW LONG THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH DAY 3...AND WILL THERE BE A PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE FOR THE STORM TO TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...HOW MUCH SLOWING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE? THESE QUESTIONS WILL BE ANSWERED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
See, even THEY don't know the answers. NOGAPS has been showing almost the same path since I had the guts to look it at 3 days ago. UKMET too. Remember how they all came in line with Charley and then Frances? I'm never eating spaghetti again.